Your TFS Oscar ballot is here 🗳️
Give me your 2025 Oscars predictions and the personal hills you'll die on.
My YouTube algorithm knows me too well. Last night it served up Warren Beatty at the 2017 Oscars, frozen on stage with that envelope, his face cycling through confusion, panic, and the slow realization that he's about to become a meme. Then the La La Land producers, already deep into their speeches, learning they need to hand their statues over to the Moonlight team. The Academy's perfectly orchestrated evening dissolving into pure unscripted reality.
I've watched that clip maybe ten times. Not for the secondhand embarrassment or the historical significance, but for those precious seconds when the glossy awards show façade crumbles and we glimpse something real. A moment as raw as Louise Fletcher signing her acceptance speech to her deaf parents. As defiant as Sacheen Littlefeather taking that stage for Marlon Brando. As gloriously unscripted as Roberto Benigni climbing over seats like gravity stopped working.
That's the thing about awards season I actually care about. It’s easy to get cynical about the Oscars. I’m so sick and tired of the "for your consideration" campaigns and the predictable industry politics. Many of the films this year have left me…sort of cold. Others made me write essays about them (thanks Anora).
The 2025 nominees should give us plenty to process. After months of breathless "frontrunner" declarations, we've landed in a season where almost nothing seems to work as intended. The Brutalist is in the hot seat for using AI. Emilia Pérez is running its own reality show channel. And while everyone's busy debating whether The Substance counts as "elevated horror," they're missing all the smaller, stranger, more interesting work buried in these nominations.
So I'm launching the first TFS Oscar Ballot on Substack. Why should I keep my awards season takes to myself when I could drag all of you down with me?
Welcome. We’re doing things a little different over here. Instead of just predicting winners, we're creating two parallel universes: the one where we're cynical industry insiders who know exactly how the Academy thinks (and watches), and the one where we get to reshape the landscape of film recognition according to our own taste.
Here's how it works:
Vote for who you think WILL win (your practical, industry-savvy predictions)
Vote for who you WANT to win (your wildest dreams, your personal hills to die on)
I'll compile both sets of answers and reveal how we measure up against what happens in an upcoming TFS podcast episode.
Paid subscribers: Only you can vote for Best Picture. Plus, the paid subscriber who gets the most "WILL win" predictions correct gets to pick the theme for next month's After Credits watchlist. (Yes, I'm bribing you with curation powers. No, I'm not above it.)
FYI I’ve included ALL categories. I know this’ll make this post very long but unlike most awards ceremonies, we’re streaming all awards here.
LFG.
It seems like Anora is going to win, but I'm mostly just grateful (knock on wood!) that we will avoid the Emelia Perez blowback. That would've been annoying to deal with.
I would have loved to have seen The Outrun up there for Best Picture and Best Actress !! That’s the hill I will gladly die on